Rhyme and reason behind picking the 2022 Melbourne Cup winner

Outsiders, particularly Interpretation, appeal to Rob Waterhouse in the Melbourne Cup. The prominent bookmaker and form guru is wary of the favourite, Deauville Legend at $3.50, as are some other authorities. It’s all about odds.

“I don’t think Deauville Legend has much, if anything, on Gai’s horse, Hoo Ya Mal, going on their clash at Goodwood last July,” Waterhouse said.

“I’ve got Hoo Ya Mal assessed at 16-1 [$17]. At better, he’s worth an investment.”

Hoo Ya Mal was purchased by clients of Gai Waterhouse after his second in the Epsom Derby and the bookmaker said his wife has been putting considerable time into the stayer since he arrived at Werribee.

The trainer, who ticks the “Melbourne Cup box” having scored with Fiorente in 2013, also has known wet-tracker Knight’s Order engaged. Still, Robbie reckons the Cup is substandard this year and judging by his European form, 50kg handicap, Waterhouse says Interpretation ($41) is worth a punt to improve significantly on his Australian efforts. Young Werther ($41), too, was another tempting him at the price.

Interpretation is one of the five acceptors for the Ciaron Maher-David Eustace team. Eustace has declared Gold Trip “easily the best” of them.

However, one particularly acerbic authority on turf matters is not so keen, saying of Gold Trip: “He won one race and he’s got 57.5kg? I didn’t think his Cox Plate run was that flash either.”

Obviously, the final track condition will play a role and the authority is “nervous” about Deauville Legend, plus he rates the judgment of jockey Craig Williams.

Trainer Gai Waterhouse with her granddaughters during the Melbourne Cup Cavalcade and Press Conference.Credit:Getty

“Craig Williams is dead-eye Dick when it comes to picking the right horse in races and he’s gone for Hoo Ya Mal, which swings me in that direction,” he said.

While trainer Les Bridge concedes the distance risk with Deauville Legend, he maintains class will get him home. Bridge, who won the Cup with Kensei (1987), has had more success with “Legends” than any other trainer, taking The Everest with Classique Legend.

“Kensei was only a handicapper, not in the same class as Deauville Legend, who I have been following in Europe because of Mr Ho’s [owner of the Legends brand] involvement.”

For decades Ken Callander was a print and TV expert and he prefers another import, six-year-old Without A Fight, to Deauville Legend. “Without A Fight has won seven and been placed seven times from 17 starts,” Callander said. “With 55.5kg the gelding is well in at the weights.”

Poet and publican Max Hitchins, who plays the market six months in advance, says: “I have 200-1 about Stockman and hope he gets conditions to suit, but Realm Of Flowers ($15) is my selection ahead of Deauville Legend. Oh, oh dear I’ve run out of time; pick a horse Max as long as it rhymes; Gai has a horse named Hoo Ya Mal; always been known as the punters’ pal.”

None has mentioned Montefilia, an accomplished group 1 performer with a decision over Verry Elleegant. The question about whether she will stay a strong 3200 metres was clarified by trainer David Payne, who said: “Yes, she’ll get two miles. Look at her last race [the Caulfield Cup], she is a much stronger mare now. All we need is luck.”

Despite the knockers, I figure Gold Trip is the danger, and if the track comes up mud, Stockman will play a role.

The Verdict*
It’s a hung jury but the judge says:
1. Montefelia
2. Gold Trip
3. Stockman
4. Lunar Flare

* I don’t tip horses I haven’t seen so at least three top hopes from abroad are eliminated. With Montefilia and Gold Trip I’ve gambled on class, with the super-fit Stockman in the trifecta on what could be a dour staying test.

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