Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances on Day Two of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 5, No.4: HARMONY ROSE

BEST VALUE

Race 6, No.2: PRAGUE

Race 9, No.11: ODEUM

RAY’S BEST

Race 4, No.2: NAJMATY

Race 2, No.2: PRIVATE EYE

BEST VALUE

Race 10, No.8: TRICKY GAL

RACE 1: THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE MILE (1600M)

Ron Dufficy: I quite like Maurice’s Medad. I’ve liked him since his early trials, he’s a good, touch, on-pace horse who always gives his all. Although he has had a bit of racing I think he is well set up here. I’m sure Converge has the talent and he ran well on the worst part of the track last start. He’s not a big horse and he just has to train on this preparation. Arnaqueur landed good bets to win his debut at Kembla Grange over 1300m and he looks like a miler. Alegron has had a month since a much improved showing second-up and he has been held back for this race.

Ray Thomas:Converge was on the best part of the track but he did a good job to lead most of the way when second to Saif last start. He has his share of weight but he’s a genuine two-year-old who races on speed making his own luck and he should run the trip right out. I also feel Maurice’s Medad is a big chance. He’s improved with every start and will enjoy getting out to 1600m. Alegron did his best work on the line when second over 1500m last start and rates highly. Akahata and Arnaqueur are not out of this race, either.

R2: SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC (1400M)

Dufficy: A competitive race. I quite like Ellsberg. He’s a nice colt who did a good job at his debut preparation and the form around him is good. He’s drawn to advantage and gets the right run. The danger is Private Eye. He suffered a severe check mid-race first-up so it is a total forgive run. Nice trial win since, the blinkers go on and he did win four from four last campaign. I have a lot of time for a horse called Rainbow Connection. He created a really good impression winning on debut then wasn’t suited going back in distance at Warwick Farm. I think he will eat up 1400m. Acrophobic is an improver who should come on from his first-up run.

Thomas: As you mentioned Ronnie, forget Private Eye went around first-up at Rosehill. He’s a promising three-year-old who was beating older horses in strong grade over summer. Ellsberg is going to be hard to beat. He’s a talent but first-up at 1400m I feel gives Private Eye a slight edge since he’s had the one run back from a spell. Rainbow Connection will appreciate the Randwick 1400m course and will be hitting the line strongly. Acrophobic ran well first-up against older horses and he’s a definite contender.

R3: PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400M)

Dufficy: The barrier draw has swung me the way of Pandano as his main dangers have all drawn wide. Pandano has been kept fresh with 49 days between his qualifying win at Newcastle. He has always promised to make the grade and is finally delivering now. I feel staying at 1400m is the key to him having that break between runs. Cristal Breeze is ready to produce his best again. He rode that speed with a big weight last start after running second to Pandano. He just needs luck from the draw. The best of those out of the market is Electric Girl. Her recent trial since qualifying behind Great News was a beauty. With Great News out of the race, I think Animate can run well. He can be ridden closer from a good draw and will be strong late.

Thomas: Terribly bad luck for the Kim Waugh stable with Great News out of the Final. This throws the door wide open for Pandano. He was very impressive in his qualifying win at Newcastle, he’s been kept fresh since and the barrier draw is ideal. He is the one to beat. Trainer Kris Lees has a powerful six-horse entry with the emerging Loch Lomond and Cristal Breeze probably his best chances. I thought the $61 about Grace Bay was way over the odds.

Pandano looks hard to beat in the Provincial Championship Final. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

R4: PERCY SYKES STAKES (1200M)

Dufficy: I’m a huge fan of Trifaccia. She is a very good filly in the making. It is a possibility she is still a work in progress as she does a few things wrong in her races but if she puts it together here I think she can win. Najmaty is the danger. She is unbeaten, she has the X-factor, steps up to 1200m is a little question mark but the way she finishes off her races it shouldn’t pose any problems. Crystal Bound ran very fast time winning on her debut and she did have a preparation in Sydney earlier this season so she should be on the right leg. But she is another one going to 1200m for the first time and that is a different pain barrier to 1000m. There is a boom on Yearning at big odds. She did a really good job on the worst part of the track at her first start. She is a sister to the $2.5 million Snitzel colt that topped the sale at Easter.

Thomas:Najmaty is my best bet today. She was outstanding on debut at the Kensington midweeks then went to Caulfield and straight to stakes level but maintained her unbeaten record with a powerful win. She has drawn a barrier for the first time, she should settle closer to the speed and we know she will find the line strongly. Najmaty can maintain her unbeaten record and beat Crystal Breeze who did create a big impression on debut. Yearning and Trifaccia both look promising fillies and if either won it would not surprise but I’m very much in Najmaty’s corner.

R5: THE STAR AUSTRALIAN OAKS (2400M)

Dufficy: This is a good Oaks. Everyone has a different opinion but I am firmly in the corner of Harmony Rose. I know she was on the best part of the track in the Vinery Stud Stakes but she just went out too hard. She was the only survivor of the on-pacers. After looking at the speed map for the Oaks she doesn’t need to go out anywhere near as hard and I feel she will be too good. Amarelinha has a fantastic race record and won the New Zealand Oaks. She is the only filly proven at 2400m and she is the danger. We have all seen what Hungry Heart can do on dry tracks now. Her past two wins have been excellent although that race was set up for her last start. I concede Montefilia is very likeable on the back-up from the Derby but I would have preferred her to run through the line a bit better last week.

Thomas: I don’t think there is much between the top four fillies. I’m going to stay with Montefilia. I’m surprised there has been some negativity about her fourth placing in the Derby last week but I thought her effort under the circumstances was very good. She made her run along the rails when the best part of the track was wider out and the best part of her races was the last 100m and through the line. She’s on the quick back-up but I feel she is the one to beat. Hungry Heart is in a groove now she has stuck a couple of good tracks. Hard to beat again. Harmony Rose is a genuine, talented filly and will be tough to run down. Amarelinha has been up a long time but her New Zealand form is outstanding.

R6: ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT (1200M)

Dufficy: Another great race. I think Prague is over the odds. He has had 42 days and a trial since being on the wrong part of the track in the Newmarket. I just think with a lot of speed up front he will swamp them late. Isotope is a very classy filly, she has a good record, stable is in form and gets all the ticks again. September Run only has to bring her Melbourne form to Sydney. She ran a terrific race in the William Reid Stakes when the track bias was against her. Wild Ruler is three from three at Randwick, he’s a dry-tracker and we have to totally forgive his unplaced run in The Galaxy when the race was a total on-pace domination.

Thomas:September Run probably should have beaten Nature Strip first-up in the Lightning Stakes then last start she did very well when a fast finishing fourth in the William Reid when she was on the worst part of the track. I know she has a reputation as a straight-tracker but I don’t think going around a bend is an issue for her. She is well placed against her own age. Isotope is a gifted filly and will make a race of this particularly from her perfect draw. Wild Ruler’s outside barrier is a concern but he loves Randwick and gets the good track he needs. I also have Prague in my numbers.

Ron Dufficy give Prague a great chance at good odds in the Arrowfield 3YO Sprint. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

R7: SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200M)

Dufficy: I couldn’t believe how well She’s Ideel went at weight-for-age last start and that tells me she is flying, Ray. She has had no luck in all runs this preparation so hopefully her luck turns for the big event. Realm Of Flowers is the obvious danger. We all saw her run in the Manion Cup, she should have beaten Favorite Moon. She is a very strong staying mare. Spirit Ridge gets a lovely on-pace run and with the blinkers off he should settle better. He is another coming off a competitive weight-for-age run and has a featherweight on his back. Miami Bound is back on track now.

Thomas: We are on the same page with She’s Ideel. She has run well in each of her four starts without any luck. She tends to get back in her races so she needs everything to go her way with that racing pattern. But I’m confident in her ability at 3200m and this is her big opportunity. Spirit Ridge makes his own luck on speed, he’s tough and resolute. He’s a terrific lightweight chance. Realm Of Flowers was outstanding in the Manion Cup and she stays all day. Favorite Moon just held off Realm Of Flowers last start but it is expected he will improve with the run.

R8: LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000M)

Dufficy: I could go either way but with the track in the good range I want to go with Verry Elleegant. I would have rather Samadoubt was in the race to drag them a long up front and she could get onto the back of Addeybb. But so be it, I feel Verry Elleegant can now adapt to all situations and she is one of our best racehorses. Addeybb is the obvious danger. He never lies down, we all know that, his second-up record is outstanding. No knock on Sir Dragonet. He’s a Cox Plate winner who found top form again in the Tancred Stakes. I thought he worked really well at Randwick on Tuesday morning. Mugatoo could be looking for 2000m. He had his chance in the Doncaster last week but is not out of this race.

Thomas: I’m in Verry Elleegant’s corner. She has won five Group 1 races this season and her preparation has been designed to have her peaking for the Queen Elizabeth. She was too good for Addeybb blast start in the Ranvet and I have her on top again. Addeybb is likely to lead and dictate terms with Verry Elleegant stalking him. This will make for a fascinating contest and we know how tough it is to reel in Addeybb. Sir Dragonet made a statement in the Tancred Stakes, proving he is effective on firm tracks. Class stayer and hard to beat. Mugatoo was beaten favourite in the Doncaster Mile last week but he raced like he is looking for 2000m.

Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are both tipping Verry Elleegant in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Photo: Jason McCawley/Getty Images for the Australian Turf ClubSource:Getty Images

R9: QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES (1600M)

Dufficy: I think Odeum is a good filly. She went back in distance in the Darby Munro Stakes when Isotope beat her. But back to the mile today where she has a good record and she is a filly getting weight off the mares. She maps well from the good draw and I feel she can upset the favourite Probabeel. Encouraging signs with a very good trial by Probabeel since the rain ruined her chances in the All Star Mile. Being a 115 rater at level weights here she certainly stands out. You can make a case that Vangelic should have won the Coolmore Classic. From the draw she is going to get into a beautiful position. Nimalee does not know how to run a bad race and she was very good winning last start after a setback.

Thomas:Probabeel is a multiple Group 1 winner and scored in the Epsom Handicap over the Randwick mile earlier in the season. She is very well placed under the set weights conditions of this race, the barrier draw ensures she will get the right run, and her barrier trial effort last week was outstanding. I can’t tip against her. I will be having a saver on Nimalee. This mare is in career best form and should take improvement from her Emancipation Stakes win. Odeum is a very competitive filly and will be hard to beat. Vangelic had no luck in the Coolmore and comes into this race on fresh legs. Greysful Glamour isn’t getting much of a mention but she did win the Villiers over this course and distance earlier in the season and has the dry track she needs to race well. We will know once and for all if Colette is just a wet-tracker.

R10: TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES (1200M)

Dufficy:Wandabaa wasn’t suited at all in a slowly run race last start. There is more pressure here and if she reproduces that good last start effort I feel she has a very good chance. Entriviere is a Kiwi mare with a great record and looks to have a lot of class. I would have picked her from a better barrier. Tofane could be the forgotten horse. She is an outstanding mare when right and won the All Aged Stakes last year. She has had two beautiful Flemington jump-outs to prepare for her return. Fiesta is the dark horse. She had no luck in The Galaxy when leader Eduardo ran them ragged but this is a different race altogether.

Thomas: I don’t mind Tricky Gal at odds. She has had a number of frustrating near misses this season but continues to hold her form and is great each way value in a tough race. Seasons is back to her best and did beat Tricky Gal last start. California Zimbol is racing in top form and is suited back against the fillies and mares. Entriviere comes to Sydney with a huge reputation.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

KEMBLA

BEST BET

Race 7, No. 1: DHAKURI

Son of Contributer from the Godolphin yard first-up at 1500m which suits. Has the makings of a nice Queensland Derby type horse.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No. 6: CANADIAN SPICE

Unlucky not to have won many more races than she presently has. Good run behind subsequent winner I Say Hello at her most recent outing.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No. 7: MADAM CHARM

Always showed talent and the type of filly who was going to progress as she develops. Owned by James McDonald’s brother, Luke, Gerry Harvey’s racing manager.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 5,6

Race 6: 1,3,8,10

Race 7: 1

Race 8: 1,2,9

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Grant ‘Bucko’ Buckley has some choice rides at Kembla to keep his legion of fans happy.

LISMORE

BEST BET

Race 2, No. 9: DIANA ROCKS

Daughter of Horse of the Year Dissident who has raced twice for two fourths. Won’t get a better chance to break the maiden early on from the good draw on Saturday.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No. 9: SIZZLING DIAMOND

Ipswich housed mare who has only won the one race in 24 starts but she has placed six times and should race prominently throughout over this trip.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No. 10: KING FAROUK

Placed third three times from 13 starts but he has run some creditable races even when he finishes out of the medals. Facing a fairly moderate bunch of rivals so gets his big chance.

Originally published asRay and Duff: Everything’s in Harmony for Rose in Oaks

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