Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis and latest odds for The Valley on Saturday

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters previews every race for Saturday’s meeting at The Valley. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.

BEST BET

BUCKHURST (Race 4, No.1)

Classy galloper that has terrific overseas form over 2000m. He was solid in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut and should be too classy for his rivals.

VALUE BET

PRINCE ZIGGY (Race 7, No.4)

Raced wide but impressed with a dominant win at Echuca at her second go. She’ll handle 1400m without a worry and she loves wet tracks.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10/2, 3, 4, 8/1, 2/1, 5, 8

$100 flexi for 64.1 per cent

BIG6

1, 2/1, 5, 8/1, 2, 3, 13/4, 5, 6, 11/2, 4, 5, 10/1, 7, 8, 10

$100 flexi for 6.51 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 6, 13

Race 7: 3, 4, 5, 6, 11

Race 8: 2, 4, 5, 10

Race 9: 1, 7, 10, 16, 18

$100 flexi for 20 per cent

RACE 1 (12.45PM): MIA KLEER HAND SANITISER HANDICAP (1000m)

Two-year-old races start the day at The Valley and expecting JIGSAW (1) to be too quick for his rivals in the opening race. He led and was too good in what turned out to be a good form race at Caulfield first-up and will only be improved. LLOYD’S CROWN (2) showed good ability in two autumn runs and worked well enough at The Valley on Tuesday. ROCK ARTIST (5) led and easily broke his maiden first-up at Moe and a couple of winners have come out of that race. DIRECT (4) wasn’t far away in Group class in Sydney first-up last time in and must be respected.

SUGGESTED BET: Jigsaw to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Jigsaw $1.90 – $1.85.

RACE 2 (1.20PM): PLANT POWERED CLEANING HANDICAP (1000m)

A capacity field of two-year-old fillies is likely to tackle the 1000m circuit with plenty of speed likely. In an extremely even race, SEYDOUX (9) could spring a surprise. She was solid on debut at Sandown when only run down late and will only be improved the experience. FROST FLOWERS (2) was dominant down the straight on debut and has the ability to show up fresh. MURA MURA (7) has good early speed and should be in it for a long way. SWEET MARY (10) was a class above her rivals on debut and could measure up to this. Watch the market closely on LA ROCQUE (1) and TYCOON HUMMA (3).

SUGGESTED BET: Seydoux each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Tycoon Humma $4.80 – $4.40.

RACE 3 (1.55PM): BROMPTON HANDICAP (1600m)

An interesting field of nine to tackle the 1600m course with the tempo to be vital here. STARCASTER (8) has been hard to catch in his career but he was good first-up over 1200m at Geelong last time in and is unbeaten at The Valley. He showed good speed and zest in his recent trial second. NO EFFORT (3) is going well and will be hard to run down despite dropping back to 1600m. HI STRANGER (4) wasn’t far away at Flemington and won his only other run at The Valley. AKTAU (2) resumes from a decent lay-off but has the class to threaten fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Starcaster to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: No Effort $6 – $3.90.

I’m Thunderstruck is an odds-on chance to post another win at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 4 (2.30PM): MIRASAN HANDICAP (2040m)

Another smallish field but happy to have something on BUCKHURST (1) at his first outing as a gelding. He wasn’t disgraced in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut before struggling in the Cox Plate. He drops a few grades in class here and should be able to race close enough from barrier one. DR DRILL (2) showed he wasn’t far away from a win with his effort at Flemington. NUDGE BAR (8) is racing well and could control the race from the front. BEDFORD (5) will give a start but is better than his last-star effort at Caulfield.

SUGGESTED BET: Buckhurst to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Bedford $4.80 – $4.60

RACE 5 (3.10PM): DOMINANT CLEANING SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1514m)

I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) was simply outstanding when bolting in at Flemington last time out and he’s capable of improving his impressive record with another win on Saturday. TUVALU (5) was honest behind I’m Thunderstruck at Flemington and will be suited by the rise in trip. DEMANDO (8) steps up in class but will roll forward and be in it for a long way. SEINERS EXPRESS (2) is racing in great form and should run well again.

SUGGESTED BET: I’m Thunderstruck to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: I’m Thunderstruck $2.10 – $1.95.

RACE 6 (3.50PM): VICTORIAN WAKEFUL CLUB LADY OF RACING HANDICAP (1600m)

The mares will do battle in the first leg of the quaddie, which will present a tough challenge for punters. BETCHA FLYING (1) ran on well and wasn’t far away at Caulfield but drops in class for this race. She should get every chance from barrier four. GHODELEINE (3) swept him to score easily at Sandown second-up and has a good record at The Valley. WHY CHOOSE HER (2) never got a crack at them at Caulfield last Saturday and should find this contest easier. SILVER LAKE (13) got the job done at Sale second-up and could measure up to this.

SUGGESTED BET: Betcha Flying each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Ghodeleine` $5.50 – $4.60.

Prince Ziggy has performed well at The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 7 (4.30PM): DOMINANT TRAVIS HARRISON CUP (2500m)

Another full field is likely in the day’s staying contest at Benchmark 78 level. PRINCE ZIGGY (4) could spring a surprise after two excellent provincial runs. He was a comfortable winner over 2400m two runs back and races well at The Valley. MR MOOJ (6) raced on the speed and tried hard at Sandown last time but scored well in this class at Sandown before that. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (5) has drawn terribly but should be around the mark after his deserved Sandown win. CARRIE (11) will roll forward again and could dictate proceedings under jockey Damian Lane.

SUGGESTED BET: Prince Ziggy each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Heir To The Throne $26 – $23.

RACE 8 (5.05PM): CONGRATULATIONS JAMIE KAH HANDICAP (2040m)

Another big field of three-year-olds will compete over the Cox Plate course in the penultimate race of the day, which features any number of winning chances. Might be worth a sneaky each-way bet on GOLDEN FOURTH (10) at the odds after her excellent effort against older horses at Geelong and she’ll only carry 52kg after her rider’s claim. SEB SONG (2) is another that drops back to his own age ground for this and he’ll be competitive again. TINTINWIN (5) was narrowly beaten in heavy ground at Ballarat and looks ready for this trip. RED SANTA (4) has drawn awkwardly but is proven over this trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Golden Fourth each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Capricorn Ridge $12 – $11.

RACE 9 (5.40PM): LADBROKE IT HANDICAP (1200m)

The last represents a tough finish to the day for punters. Alana Kelly is riding well in town and should get a chance to post another win on IMPERIAL LAD (1). He was a fighting first-up winner at Geelong and his form in harder races should stand him in good stead second-up. FOXY LADY (10) is always hard to beat around The Valley and this will be no exception. FLASH FLOOD (18) is the fourth emergency but he has the ability to challenge first-up if he gets a run. ROCK IN THE PARK (7) was a strong first-up winner and Sandown and could go on with it.

SUGGESTED BET: Imperial Lad each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Flash Flood $5 – $4.40.

Nick Quinn’s Mailbag

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for The Valley and Randwick.

BEST BET: No Effort (The Valley, R3, No.3)

VALUE BET: Why Choose Her (The Valley, R6, No.2)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Canasta (Randwick, R6, No.2)

BROMPTON HANDICAP (1600M)

The Valley, R3, 1.55pm

There has been early money for No Effort as the in-form mare chases a third straight success.

No Effort opened $6 and has been backed into a $4 second favourite.

Early bets on No Effort include $500 at $6, $500 at $5 and $2300 at $4.40.

Former star jumps jockey turned trainer Gavin Bedggood has done a tremendous job placing No Effort and she finds another winnable race.

Hi Stranger heads the market at $3.50 and has two placings in three starts this campaign.

The resuming Starcaster is a fascinating runner. The six-year-old gelding has ability but is still putting it all together.

He is unbeaten in two starts at The Valley and has to be respected.

THE TIP: NO EFFORT win.

No Effort (centre) is going for three straight wins. Picture: AAPSource:AAP

3YO HANDICAP (1514M)

The Valley, R5, 3.10pm

Boom galloper I’m Thunderstruck showed his true ability at Flemington last start with a stunning four-length victory.

He heads to The Valley for the first time and it will be interesting to see how he handles the unique turning circuit.

If he handles the track, then he should be again too strong and he will be worth sticking with into the spring where his targets include the Golden Eagle.

I’m Thunderstruck opened $2.10 and has been backed into $1.95.

One punter stepped in early with a $2000 bet at $2.

Tuvalu tasted defeat for the first time in his career last start at Flemington behind I’m Thunderstruck but should take benefit from that run and stepping up in trip.

Tuvalu is the main danger at $4.20.

The Lloyd Kennewell-trained Barragunda is one to keep an eye on at big odds.

Barragunda has resumed from a spell with two wins in easier grade but looks progressive and Damien Oliver stays on.

He opened $34 and has firmed into $23.

THE TIP: I’M THUNDERSTRUCK win.

MOËT & CHANDON HANDICAP (1400M)

Randwick, R7, 2.50pm

Former U.K galloper Surf Dancer was heavily backed leading into his Australian debut at Randwick on July 17.

He drifted in betting on race day but gave a bold sight to stick on for third.

Surf Dancer departed England having won his final two starts and is a three-time winner over this 1400m trip.

One punter stepped in with a bet of $1000 each-way on Surf Dancer at $5.50 and $2 the place.

After opening at $6, the four-year-old gelding is now a $4.20 favourite.

He should derive plenty of benefit from that first-up run.

Blondeau was successful in that race and will again give a great sight.

Vitesse can also feature in the placing at longer odds after winning last start and should get a lovely run from gate four.

THE TIP: SURF DANCER each-way.

Originally published asValley tips: Buckhurst to bring the bucks

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