Race-by-race preview and tips for Monday meeting at Goulburn

Track likely Heavy 9 and rail True

Race 1 – 1pm: CLASS 2 HCP (1000m)

Small field of progressive sprinters get first use of a track battered by rain, although it can slowly improve through the day. Deep into her prep, metropolitan mare 1. Amazing Nicci has an edge in race fitness, and is on the quick back-up from a strong finishing effort in deeper grade here 10 days ago.

Goulburn will host Monday’s NSW feature meeting.Credit:Jenny Evans

Is fairly treated carrying just 1.5kg more, and both career wins so far from 11 starts have come on heavy tracks. Will settle back, and only needs a reasonable tempo up front to finish over them.

Dangers: On the score of potential, the smart debut win at this track of rival four-year-old 2. Golden Fighter makes him the clear threat. Taking on some tougher ones, but he had plenty up his sleeve that day on a Soft 7 rating and should park either outside the lead or just off. Gap to the rest headed by lightly raced 6. Alpine Lady who bolted in a weak two-year-old race from the front first-up in handy time.

How to play it: Amazing Nicci to win and quinella 1 and 2. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 2 – 1.35pm: MAIDEN PLATE (1300m)

Very keen on improving metro mare 5. Lady Fraulein who is primed to break through fourth-up in her first proper prep. Has hit the line strongly in her last two against deeper opposition, and with only 57kg and blinkers being added, just needs a clear shot at them from the 350m.

Dangers: Watch the betting on Russian Revolution three-year-old 8. Mayhem who debuts for a leading metro yard with plenty of gear additions, and has been given a stack of time at the trials. Include 2. Notabadsuspect returning for his second start off two forward trials; resuming mare 7. Santorini Sun behind two quiet trials; and well-bred Not A Single Doubt colt 9. Schmeichel on debut; in trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Lady Fraulein to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 3 – 2.10pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1200m)

Plenty of chances in this one, but metro four-year-old 6. Vengeful is well-placed from a soft draw fourth-up, and bred to thrive in heavy ground. Easily beat a handy maiden field two runs back before not in the right part of the track when labouring late at Scone 24 days ago.

Dangers: Expecting natural improvement second-up from provincial four-year-old 5. Keikoku who draws the fence; while 4. Dream Eclipse is over the odds third-up. Yet another Hawkesbury-based runner, 1. No Statement comes off a BM 58 win and is fit and honest, but still poorly in at the weights, and the stable has an ordinary strike rate.

How to play it: Vengeful to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 4 – 2.45pm: BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1400m)

Tricky race in this going, with plenty of chances. Improving provincial mare 11. The Halo is well drawn to make a successful step-up to this grade. Was $3.20 into $2.70 when rushing home from well back for a dominant maiden win at Bathurst, and naturally carries 2kg less here. Always shown a clear liking for rain-affected ground, and well over the odds.

Dangers: Watch the market on metro five-year-old 1. Deel With Me who resumes with blinkers off, fitted with two trials, and prefers rain-affected ground. Tough Canberra five-year-old 5. Dubai Centre is well capable of making it three straight wins, although not overly well treated under 59.5kg stepping up from BM 58 success, and a query in very heavy ground. Keep safe metro mare 10. Eve ‘N’ Ruby third-up behind a last start win in weaker class.

How to pay it: The Halo each way and box trifecta 1,5,10,11. Odds and Evens: Odds

Race 5 – 3.20pm: MAIDEN HCP (1500m)

Potential match race here between two metro victors, but very much with Headwater three-year-old 4. Doughboy Hollow who can go one better at his second start. Led for a long way on debut at the provincials, and with that experience and fitness under his belt, is the one to beat carrying the same weight.

Dangers: Talented 1. Hotstep was beaten by a smart one on debut at Newcastle seven weeks ago before running on late here three weeks back. Stable has made a gear adjustment, and a little more ground from a softer draw are handy plusses. Gap to the rest headed by 3. Reginald who resumes behind two trials.

How to play it: Doughboy Hollow to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 6 – 4pm: BENCHMARK 58 HCP (1600m)

Good depth in this middle distance stoush, and naturally very open. Like tough and consistent Canberra five-year-old 7. The Pres who doesn’t win often, but suited here in this company. Hasn’t missed a place in his last four, generally working through the line well against better opposition, and all his best figures are in heavy going. Was scratched from Dubbo on Sunday to be saved for this.

Dangers: Keep safe home track mare 9. Smelisha who shoots for three straight wins, and bred to get further. Watch for underrated five-year-old 2. Brainzes running home late fifth-up; while 6. Howlowcanyougo can also land in the minor end of the money.

How to play it: The Pres to win. Odds and Evens: Split

Race 7 – 4.40pm: MAIDEN HCP (1000m)

We finish with a very open maiden for the sprinters, and it shapes nicely for lightly raced colt 3. First Grange at his third start. Was only collared late when leading first-up at Canberra in heavy ground, and with a key gear addition and ridden a little quieter from the draw, he can break through.

Dangers: The market will tell a story with metro-based Sebring mare 4. Bringonthebubbles who was very strong through the line late in the second of two recent trials. Included in exotics 6. Surreal Lily after 22 days between runs via a dominant heavy track trial win; 12. Mandalong Missile first-up off a forward trial; and 13. Mona Vale Lisa who was right behind the placegetters at big odds on debut here three weeks back.

How to play it: First Grange to win. Odds and Evens: Split

BEST BETS
R2 5. LADY FRAULEIN
R5 4. DOUGHBOY HOLLOW

BEST VALUE
R4 11. THE HALO

Tips supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.

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