Mudgee preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail
If Miss Mayfield can win on Sunday at in the opener at Mudgee she’ll likely get her first taste of the big city lights.
Trainer Kody Nestor will be early watching on to see if she passes her latest test.
“She’s been going through the grades well this preparation and if she wins this race I’d like to think she might take the next step to Highway level,” he said.
“They’ve got to tick a few boxes for me to take them down for a Highway. I don’t like to waste a run in one if they’re not good enough. She’s progressive.
“Toro Toro is a handy horse so if she can put them away nice and easy we’ll look at the Highway option.”
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Miss Mayfield has put together a good record so far (5-2:2:0) and has won two this time in and was second last start in a Benchmark 58 at Coonamble.
“She’s come of age a little bit this preparation and I’m really happy with the way she’s going,” Nestor said.
“She was probably just found out a little bit the other day a wet track and the wide barrier meant she had to do a little bit of work.
“It’s been a little bit of time between runs now and she draws a barrier now and being right down in weight is a real key, I think. She’s not an overly big mare.”
Kody Nestor is hoping Mayfield Miss will be good enough to take to the city. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
She’ll jump from barrier three with Liam Blanch on board and carries just 53.5kg thanks to his claim.
“She should get a soft run and her work at home has been good,” Nestor said.
“On a lot of the tracks out here you don’t want to be giving them too much ground in the run. She can dictate and also sit in behind them and she’s got a pretty good turn of foot.”
Five Bob is Nestor’s other big hope in a 3YO Maiden Plate (1100m). She’s only had one run to date and that was last august with second at Narromine.
She’s taken some time to get right but is showing all the signs of a good return off a pretty effortless looking trial.
“She just had a few little niggling injuries. We gave her a trial at Dubbo (February 14) and she pulled up mildly lame so we backed off,” Nestor said.
“She trialled well at Wellington the other day and she’s going well. She was fat as mud in that trial but she’s taken improvement out of it.
“She should get a lovely run from the barrier (2) and she’ll put herself right in the race.”
Lozenger is Nestor’s other runner on the day, in race five, and she’s coming off an eighth placing on debut when things didn’t turn out well.
“The run wasn’t all that bad first-up over 1300m,” Nestor said.
“She sat three-deep off a pretty hot tempo and she was entitled to fall in a hole.
“Her work at home has been good and I’m hoping she gets more luck so we can see where she’s at.”
Matt Jones’ top selections
BEST BET
Race 1 No.3: PRIMAL SCREAM
Loved his trials and trainer Cameron Crockett is excited for his return off an eight-week freshen-up and 1100m is his right trip off the break.
NEXT BEST
Race 4 No.6: CASINO KID
He’s only won once from 10 goes but is really looking for 1600m now and he’ll love the trip off a few eye-catching runs this time in.
VALUE BET
Race 7 No.12: STELLAR BLAZE
Her racing pattern goes against her but she’s bound to win one soon. Came home well last time and should pounce late.
QUADDIE
Race 4: 3, 6, 7
Race 5: 1, 3, 8
Race 6: 1, 3, 8, 9
Race 7: 3, 9, 12
TRAINER TO WATCH
Stephen Jones has Toro Toro in the first race and after a couple of average results he has the ability to turn the tables in the first.
JOCKEY TO WATCH
Christian Reith can start and end the day with wins on Primal Scream and Stellar Blaze who he’ll need to ride well to win.
Christian Reith can bookend the Mudgee program with wins. Picture: Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images
Inside Mail – Mudgee
RACE 1
Primal Scream looks well set up to run a good race here off an eight-week freshen up. He put in a good winning trial and will be suited to 1100m. Miss Mayfield has won two and ran second in her other race this time in. She’s putting together a good record early due to her attractive on-speed pattern so she’s avoiding bad luck. She’s fourth-up so should be in it for a long way once again. Alaskan Aura just ran into a better one last time and he will enjoy a little more ground now. The inside draw means he can jump and be a little closer in the run. Denace is the other hope at her pet distance where she’s only been unplaced once from seven attempts.
BET: PRIMAL SCREAM to win
RACE 2
Hasalake has put in three good runs at provincial level to kick off her career and was within half a length of the winner at her past two so this step back in grade should be the ticket to her breaking through. Five Bob hasn’t been seen since running second on debut at Narromine last August but she put in a nice winning trial when doing it in comfortable fashion so she’ll have her supporters. Excelness gets back on top of the ground after a Heavy 8 second on debut and she’ll take a lot of improvement out of that.
BET: Hasalake to win
RACE 3
Sancta jumped and led but got run down on debut at Gosford. A step back in distance and a country race looks a good combination for her against a bunch of horses without a great deal of form. Our Cousin Al does have some provincial form from his last run when third at Gosford over 1000m. He had a wide gate that day and does again here so he’ll need luck again, likely from an off-speed position. Camo’s Dream looked very comfortable in his trial and we’ll really find out what’s under the bonnet today. He does have a wide gate which is a worry for a first starter.
BET: SANCTA to win
RACE 4
Casino Kid finally gets back out to 1600m now and he needs that to win after three-straight fourths over 1200m and 1400m. He has no excuses here from a good gate in what looks a weak race. One Star Shining ran second at Tamworth last time out and from a wide gate, he could run out the mile if he finds cover and gets an economical run in transit. Will To Excel has freshened up to come back to a mile now where he’s won two races from three attempts so he’ll love the trip and be strong late. Another Ali has a wide draw but likes this distance and will be coming late.
BET: CASINO KID to win
RACE 5
Akahata drops back in grade from a midweek city race where he was less than four lengths off the winner. That should be good enough to be in the finish here, especially considering he’s third-up with a good gate. More Oomph is also third-up but drawn wide. She’s probably going to be ridden off the pace so luck is needed, but this is a weak event so she should be able to beat most home. Ricky Bobby is first-up but ran a close fourth behind Sidearm last time in and that’s proven to be very good form.
BET: RICKY BOBBY to win
RACE 6
O’Tartan Lass looks hard to beat from that barrier (2) because she jumps and puts herself on the speed and has the ability to kick and keep going. She’s hard to hold out here because she’s won at a mile so the stamina will be there late. Fearless Mila shoots for four-straight under a new trainer. She’s become a leader now which has proved to be the right tactic and she led them into the straight to win over a mile last time so she’s very fit. She’s had two runs in a row over a mile though so her fans will be hoping she’s still got the speed in her legs. Pamela is the highest-rated horse in the race and she’s primed for 1600m now.
BET: O’TARTAN LASS to win
RACE 7
The Drover was good first-up when coming home well and he has a second-up win to his name and it was a big one so look for him to lift to another level. Tawfiq Lass has come back a better horse, no doubt, but she has a wide gate to contend with so luck is needed at a trip she’s won at. Stellar Blaze has a wide gate but gets back anyway so she needs luck which is why she’s got a poor win record. She’s been very close at her past three and she’s got a winning weight.
BET: STELLAR BLAZE to win
Originally published asMudgee tips: City beckons if Miss a hit
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