Melbourne Cup expert tips: Who will win the race and why?

10/31/2022

Our experts give their Melbourne Cup tips and explain their reasoning ahead of the big race.

AMANDA ELLIOTT
Former VRC chairman
1. Montefilia
2. Deauville Legend
3. Stockman
4. Realm Of Flowers
Montefilia flashed home late to run fourth in the Caulfield Cup and goes well on soft ground. The favourite Deauville Legend has great form around El Bodegon and Secret State, while Stockman and Realm Of Flowers will both appreciate 3200 metres and the soft track. Apologies to Without A Fight, Lunar Flare and Vow and Declare.

DAMIEN RACTLIFFE
The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Without A Fight
3. Young Werther
4. Montefilia
The top two favourites, both internationals, look to have the right form to be competitive in a race of this nature. Of the locals, I would certainly entertain Young Werther at an each-way price.

PETER RYAN
The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Young Werther
3. Serpentine
4. Grand Promenade
The hit-and-run mission from Deauville Legend is on track with scratchings giving him a class edge on his rivals. Only needs to get the two miles with Young Werther the main danger having run well in the Cox Plate.

MICHELLE PAYNE
Cup-winning jockey, Network 10
1. Realm of Flowers
2. Without a Fight
3. Knights Order
4. Lunar Flare
The 50kgs for Realm of Flowers just looks so good! I love this mare. She stays, she handles wet conditions and she’s going really well. Ticks the most boxes.

ANDREW WU
The Age
1. Gold Trip
2. Deauville Legend
3. Young Werther
4. Hoo Ya Mal
In a Cup lacking depth, Gold Trip’s class, as seen in 2020 Arc de Triomphe fourth, will go a long way. In form and gets preferred wet ground. Deauville Legend has form around Cox Plate placegetter.

MICHAEL MANLEY
The Age
1. Gold Trip
2. Deauville Legend
3. Smokin’ Romans
4. Without A Fight
Gold Trip has got the best traditional lead-up form for the Melbourne Cup. He was beaten in the final stride in the Caulfield Cup by an in-form stayer.

TIM HABEL
The Age
1. Deauville Legend
2. Smokin’ Romans
3. Lunar Flare
4. Gold Trip
UK raider Deauville Legend fits the same profile as northern hemisphere three-year-old Cup winners Rekindling (2017) and Cross Counter (2018). Best of the locals are Smokin’ Romans, Lunar Flare and Gold Trip.

CHRIS ROOTS
Sydney Morning Herald
1. Montefilia
2. Deauville Legend
3. Lunar Flare
4. Without A Fight
Trainer David Payne has planned for two years to have Montefilia at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November and he gets the four-time group 1 there at the peak of her powers. She caught the eye charging into fourth in the Caulfield Cup and has won a Metropolitan at 2400 metres and has beating Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes over 2000m last year. She is the perfect mix of speed and stamina and will run out the 3200m. I have a lot of respect for Deauville Legend, but his weight of 55 kilograms is three kilograms more than a European three-year-old has won the Cup with before and weight can stop a train.

SCOTT SPITS
The Age
1. Montefilia
2. Gold Trip
3. Young Werther
4. Deauville Legend
Like the look of Gold Trip but expect the top weight to feel the pinch in the closing stages. Montefilia is rightfully not far off the favourites. Can’t leave Deauville Legend out of the top five or so.

ANTHONY CARBINES
Victorian Racing Minister
1. Lunar Flare
2. Without A Fight
3. Deauville Legend
4. Vow And Declare
I’ve been backing Lunar Flare since her win in the Bart Cummings and not getting off now. Jockey Mick Dee is in career best form after his breakout wins in the Caulfield Cup and the Derby.

CRYSTAL KIMBER
Cup ambassador
1. Realm of Flowers
2. Deauville Legend
3. Without A Fight
4. Smokin’ Romans
Real Of Flowers has a low weight, is proven at the distance and loves wet ground. Deauville Legend’s only question mark is the wet track. Without A Fight has had two dominant wins in the UK, handles the wet and looks like 3200 suits well. Smokin’ Romans looked great winning the Turnbull before nothing went right in the Caulfield Cup. Right track, right jockey and well in under handicap despite recent group 1 win.

MAX PRESNELL
Sydney Morning Herald
1. Montefilia
2. Gold Trip
3. Stockman
4. Lunar Flare
With Montefilia and Gold Trip I’ve gambled on class, with the super fit Stockman in the Melbourne Cup trifecta on what could be a dour staying test.

OLLIE WINES
VRC ambassador
1. Lunar Flare
2. Deauville Legend
3. Realm of Flowers
4. Hoo Ya Mal

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Melbourne Cup expert tips: Who will win the race and why?

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