Dubbo preview: Tips, best bets and inside mail

Kody Nestor is hoping the “visitor’s draw” proves to be a bonus on his home track as several of his big team find themselves in wide barriers on Sunday.

Giving Nestor reason to be hopeful is that this is the third recent meeting on the track and when it’s wet, Dubbo tends to favour horses coming down the outside.

“You generally want to be coming wide in the straight at Dubbo when it’s wet,” Nestor said.

“The first race or two, they might stay on the inside towards the rail but, after that, I firmly believe jockeys will start coming wider.”

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Nestor qualified two runners for the Winter Classic Final with Forseti in barrier 12 and Music Miss in 17 before scratchings.

“Music Miss has been racing well without a lot of luck,’’ Nestor said.

“It was a good run again last start and she has got that extra bit of fitness she needed coming into this race so she’s 100 per cent spot-on.

“She meets Wishfilly better at the weights. There is a 3kg turnaround for her.

“The query is where she settles in the run but I’ll leave that up to Anthony (Cavallo).

“Forseti is also racing well. He’ll probably get back a touch out of his ground again.

“From the barrier, he’ll have no hesitation in getting to the outside. If the track plays that way, it will fall into his hands.”

Promising filly Super Chance looks just as her name suggests when she resumes in the opening event, the Maiden Plate over 1110m.

The daughter of Super One has finished no further back than fourth in her six starts and has pleased Nestor with her lead-up work this campaign.

“She has come back in really good order,” he said.

“She was just a bit immature last time in and she is definitely shaping up a lot better this preparation, both mentally and physically.

“She had a jump out the other morning and I was really happy with her effort.

“If she gets even luck, she will be right there.”

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One of the few of Nestor’s runners to draw an inside gate is Tintern Power, who is looking to end his campaign on a winning note in the Maiden Handicap over 1410m.

The gelding has placed in four of his seven starts, including his past two at Dubbo and Coonamble, and has shown he can handle wet tracks.

“He’s on a quick back-up after racing well at Coonamble last Sunday,’’ Nestor said.

“I’ve kept him fresh this week and, dropping back to 1400m on his home track, I expect him to race well.”

Beau Factor is coming off a big victory at this course two weeks ago and Nestor said he could make it two in a row in the Class 1 over 1110m.

“He has drawn a bit awkwardly but he has a bit of an advantage with the apprentice’s claim,’’ Nestor said.

“I expect him to be hard enough to beat.”

ADAM SHERRY’S TOP SELECTIONS

BEST BET

Race 7, No.8: DEVILS TRIANGLE

Had shown ability in some Randwick trials last year before debuting with a smart win at Wagga recently. Bred to handle the wet and the 1410m looks ideal.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.3: FEARLESS MILA

Resumed from a spell with a handy win over 1200m on a heavy track here at Dubbo. Goes to 1610m second-up which is her best distance.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.2: TINTERN POWER

Handy efforts to place at his last two starts. Backing up from a second at Coonamble last week and drops in weight and distance.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1, 3, 4

Race 5: 1, 3, 11, 12

Race 6: 2, 3, 8, 10

Race 7: 3, 7, 8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Anthony Cavallo has ridden more winners for Kody Nestor than anyone else and they combine with three top hopes – Super Chance, Tintern Power and Music Miss.

Anthony Cavallo has formed a strong combination with Kody Nestor. Picture: AAPSource:AAP

INSIDE MAIL: DUBBO

RACE 1

Super Chance raced very well last campaign but just couldn’t quite break through. Placed four of six starts with three of them on soft ground. Can kick off this campaign with a win. Art Angel turned in a good effort to just go down by a half-head at Bathurst last start. Can figure prominently again. Gigastar will find this a bit easier than his last start fourth at Hawkesbury. Steel Factor trialled well here and must be kept safe.

Bet: Super Chance to win.

RACE 2

Tintern Power is an improving type. Handy third at Dubbo two starts back followed by a nice second at Coonamble last week. On quick back-up and looks a good chance to go one better. Swiss Scent covered plenty of ground at Muswellbrook last start. Drawn wide again but has claims. Cross Creek boxed on to hold third after leading at Sapphire Coast two weeks ago. Castlehyde is worth including in the multiples.

Bet: Tintern Power to win. Quinella/trifecta 2,3,4,5.

RACE 3

Careering Away is racing in extremely consistent form with just one blemish two runs back when he blundered at the start. Boxed on for third at Bathurst last start over 1800m and will appreciate the step up in distance here. Bacinblac got a confidence-boosting win at Gulgong two weeks ago and has wet track form. Preston will find this easier than his last start fifth to Wishfilly. Cthonia was a huge winner at Mudgee last start on a heavy track.

Bet: Careering Away to win.

RACE 4

Fearless Mila returned from a let-up to score a nice win from Zoutenant over here three weeks ago. Jumps up to 1610m but that is her preferred distance. Slatey Bay just got there at Dubbo last. Back in grade and will appreciate the 4kg claim. The Drover came from well back for second to Casino Kid in a TAB Highway two weeks ago. Toulon Brook can sneak a place.

Bet: Fearless Mia to win. Quinella/trifecta 1,2,3,4.

RACE 5

He will need a bit of luck from the wide gate but Beau Factor looks a promising horse. Big win at Dubbo last start and the 2kg claim here will help. Giftover is resuming from a spell and has won a Scone trial recently. Form last campaign was good and is a huge chance. She’s Smart closed off nicely behind My Little Racer at Bathurst. Missile Rain is also resuming and has trialled nicely.

Bet: Beau Factor to win.

RACE 6

Since being ridden forward, Wishfilly has been in superb form. Smart wins at her past three and can make it four on end here. Music Miss was second to Wishfilly last start and does meet her better at the weights. Just needs some luck from the gate. Boom Queen was a big winner at Coonamble last time out. Drawn nicely and has solid wet track form. Forseti is racing well and will be storming home late.

Bet: Wishfilly to win. Quinella/trifecta 2,3,8,10.

RACE 7

Devils Triangle kicked off her career in the best possible fashion with a solid come from behind win at Wagga just over two weeks ago. Steps up to 1410m but that’s should suit her even better and she handles the wet. Bandahara will be fitter for his first-up third to Fearless Mila. Drawn well and will give a bold sight. Zoo Station won his last two in good fashion before a spell. Has had two trials and sure to run well. Silverdeel is worth thought on last start Dubbo win.

Bet: Devils Triangle to win. Quinella/trifecta 8/3,7,10.

Originally published asDubbo tips: Wide barriers in Nestor’s favour

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