Giant Killers’ 10 most likely first-round upsets in the 2023 men’s NCAA tournament

Who’s ready to pick some upsets?

Now that we know the field for the 2023 men’s college basketball tournament, you’re trying to find that 12-over-5 upset that everyone just knows is coming. If you’re like us, you’d also like some numbers to support that hunch.

Giant Killers is here for you. Back for a downright Boeheim-like 17th consecutive NCAA tournament, Giant Killers is our probabilistic forecast for March upsets.

You can read all about the details if you wish, but the idea is fairly straightforward. Giant Killers starts with a base probability of an upset from ESPN’s College Basketball Power Index and adds the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in each matchup.

As always, Giant Killers considers only matchups with at least a five-seed line differential (so, a No. 11 over a No. 6 in the first round, for example).

We know there will be upsets. Our model is here to try to spot them in advance.

Here are Giant Killers’ top 10 most likely upsets of the first round.

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