NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Advanced computer model loving Saints and Patriots
The Steelers and Panthers put up a combined 73 points on Thursday night, and the latest Week 10 NFL odds indicate there could be even more high-scoring games on the way. There are also plenty of large NFL lines this week, signaling possible mismatches up and down the Week 10 NFL schedule. Five remaining games have an Over-Under of at least 50, while four teams are favored by double-digits, including the Chiefs (-16.5) hosting the Cardinals in one of the largest NFL spreads of the season. With scoreboards set to light up and large NFL odds to navigate, be sure to check out the Week 10 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model before laying any of your own.
SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 10 on a strong 8-0 run. For the season, it is now 22-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a blistering 70-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 89-43 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.
Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 10 NFL picks are in.
One of the top Week 10 NFL picks the model loves: the Patriots (-7) cover in Nashville against the Titans.
Plenty of familiar faces will meet up in this matchup as Titans coach Mike Vrabel takes on former coach Bill Belichick. And although Tennessee pulled off the upset in Week 9 on the road against the Cowboys, the model likes the value on the Patriots this weekend, even with tight end Rob Gronkowski (back, ankle) likely sitting.
Tom Brady throws for over 300 yards, according to the model, helping New England cover in almost 55 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (47) because that hits over 50 percent of the time in this battle of two defenses that are giving up fewer than 23 points per game.
Another one of the strong Week 10 NFL predictions from the model: the Saints (-5.5) cover with plenty of room to spare against the Bengals.
Even though the Bengals have been a surprising team this season and enter Sunday’s game at 5-3, this is a nightmare matchup for Cincinnati, the league’s worst passing defense. Saints quarterback Drew Brees leads the league in completion percentage (76.3) and just torched the Rams for 346 yards and four touchdowns.
Wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) is out for Cincinnati, and asking Andy Dalton to keep pace with Tyler Boyd and John Ross as his top targets is a tough task. The Saints cover the spread in almost 60 percent of simulations, according to the model, while the Over (54) hits in over half of simulations.
The model also has a strong selection for the huge Cowboys vs. Eagles showdown on “Sunday Night Football” and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to get a huge scare against a big underdog.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? And what Super Bowl contender gets a huge scare? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7, 36.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+6, 50.5)
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5, 54)
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 51)
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+7, 47)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 46.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 44)
Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-16.5, 49.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+10, 50)
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10, 47.5)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-10, 50)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43.5)
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 44.5)
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