Fresno State vs. Boise State odds, line: Picks and predictions from advanced computer model on 7-3 roll

An important Mountain West showdown awaits Friday at 10:15 p.m. ET when the Fresno State Bulldogs visit the Boise State Broncos. The Bulldogs are three-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 54 in the latest Boise State vs. Fresno State odds. However, with these teams still vying for a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game, this could be a tough game to handicap without some help. So before you make your Boise State vs. Fresno State picks and predictions, be sure to check out the simulations from the advanced computer model at SportsLine. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks. 

And in Week 10, it absolutely nailed the biggest game of the season, recommending the Crimson Tide against the spread (-14), on the money line (-588) and hitting the under in Alabama’s 29-0 blowout of LSU. It also nailed its top-rated selection of Auburn (-3.5) over Texas A&M, helping the model finish the weekend on a strong 7-3 run on all top-rated picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has run its simulations and crunched the numbers for Fresno State vs. Boise State and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also locked in a strong point-spread selection that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Fresno State is on a roll with wins and covers in its past seven games. In fact, its 8-1 record against the spread and has made it one of the most attractive plays of the 2018 college football season.

One big reason Fresno State has been so dominant: its defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 307 yards per game and they’ve been stout against the run and the pass. They’ve held every opponent they’ve faced at or below their season averages in passing and rushing with the exception of Toledo, which averages 235 yards passing and managed 238 in a loss to Fresno State on Sept. 29. Combine that fact with the fact that they’ve forced a staggering 21 turnovers and it’s easy to see why they have the No. 2 scoring defense in college football. 

However, it has been a while since Fresno State has been challenged by an opponent of Boise State’s caliber, so a cover on the road is no guarantee. 

Boise State has built itself to compete in games where it looks like it might be out-manned. Quarterback Brett Rypien has played in plenty of marquee games as a four-year starter and is having his best statistical season to date. Rypien has six games under his belt this season where he has thrown for over 300 yards, at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. In those games, Boise State is 5-1. 

He’s also 17-4 now in his career on the blue turf in Boise, so he might find a little extra motivation in being a home underdog for the first time in his career. 

So, which side of the Fresno State vs. Boise State spread cashes in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit for $100 bettors.

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