NBA SportsLine projections: Warriors’ chances to win title improve; Raptors and Celtics still top-two in East
The 2018-19 NBA season has been off to an entertaining start, and now that we’re a good three weeks in, it’s time to take stock of the league and see where things are heading. SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has run the simulations and crunched the numbers to give us some updated projections on where teams will finish this season.
Here’s a look at the odds for every team to make the playoffs, win their conference and win the title.
Eastern Conference
Teams
Projected wins
Make playoffs
Win Eastern Conference
Win NBA title
Toronto Raptors
60.4
100%
35.5%
11.4%
Boston Celtics
54.6
100%
26.7%
6.9%
Milwaukee Bucks
53.8
99.9%
14.4%
2.8%
Indiana Pacers
50.1
99.4%
8%
1.4%
Philadelphia 76ers
48.3
98.7%
3.2%
1.4%
Charlotte Hornets
45.5
94.5%
3.2%
0.3%
Miami Heat
44
88%
2.4%
0.5%
New York Knicks
39.2
50.4%
0.3%
0%
Brooklyn Nets
38
36.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Detroit Pistons
37
27%
0.1%
0%
Washington Wizards
32.4
4.7%
0%
0%
Atlanta Hawks
28.3
0.4%
0%
0%
Orlando Magic
26.9
0.2%
0%
0%
Chicago Bulls
21.4
0%
0%
0%
Cleveland Cavaliers
20.6
0%
0%
0%
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The Raptors and Celtics are still the favorites in the East. While the odds have tilted slightly in the Raptors’ favor for now, the projections show a greater than 60 percent chance that one of these teams will win the East.
- The projections finally believe in the Bucks. Prior to the season, SportsLine’s projections saw them as a 43.5 win team, with just a 1.4 percent chance to win the East. Now, thanks to their 8-1 start, their win projection has shot up to nearly 54, while their chances to win the conference have jumped to 14.4 percent.
- Perhaps the most interesting projection for any team here is the Knicks. Before the season started, SportsLine’s data gave them just a 1.9 percent chance of making the playoffs. Yet despite a 3-7 start, the odds have spiked in New York’s favor, with SportsLine seeing them as having a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs.
Western Conference
Teams
Projected wins
Make playoffs
Win Western Conference
Win NBA title
Golden State Warriors
68.4
100%
79.5%
68.1%
Portland Trail Blazers
49.4
97.6%
4%
1.5%
Denver Nuggets
48.6
96%
3.2%
1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
48.4
95.5%
3%
1.1%
Los Angeles Lakers
46.7
90.3%
5.2%
2.2%
San Antonio Spurs
44.8
81.3%
0.7%
0.2%
New Orleans Pelicans
43.9
73.5%
1%
0.2%
Utah Jazz
43.8
73.5%
1.4%
0.4%
Houston Rockets
42.5
59.5%
1.4%
0.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves
37.2
13.7%
0%
0%
Memphis Grizzlies
36.2
9.9%
0%
0%
LA Clippers
35.7
7.5%
0%
0%
Dallas Mavericks
32.1
1.5%
0%
0%
Sacramento Kings
28.2
0%
0%
0%
Phoenix Suns
24
0%
0%
0%
A few takeaways from these projections:
- The Warriors have looked completely dominant early in the season, and as a result, their title odds have shot way up. They were big favorites even before the season, with SportsLine giving them a 40 percent chance to win the title. Now? The Warriors’ chances for a three-peat have spiked to over 68 percent. It’s hard to argue with that given how well they’re playing, especially considering they’re still yet to add DeMarcus Cousins to the mix.
- The data is back in on the Trail Blazers. Prior to the season, SportsLine’s projections saw the Blazers as one of the teams getting squeezed out of the playoffs in the crowded Western Conference. Not so anymore, as they now have a nearly 98 percent chance of making the postseason again.
- A slow start for the Lakers does not seem to be affecting how the projections view them. While their win total projection has slipped a bit, they’re still seen as having a greater than 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
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