TAB On The Punt: Nathan Exelby previews the meeting at Doomben

Sky Racing and Brisbane Racing Club’s turf expert Nathan Exelby runs his eye over Saturday’s Doomben Cup meeting at Doomben.

BEST BETS

Hoover Lucy, R3 No.6 – $8.50

Led and run down over 1400m at Hawkesbury. Like her back to 1200m and just needs some luck from the draw. On a line through Achira, don’t think there should be as much between her and the favourite Socialist.

Mugatoo, R7 No.2 – $4.80

Can’t see him missing a place off the inside draw. Freshened up and expect Doomben to really suit him. Think he can sprint quickly when he sees daylight in the straight.

Good Soize, R9 No.6 – $9.50

I think she’s a good gamble on both totes here. She has to take another step now, but I think she’s up to it. Was only second up at the Gold Coast and kept coming from well back after the winner had worked into it on the turn. Fitter and much better draw this time.

Horse racing: See the latest TAB market update for the 2021 Group 1 Doomben Cup….

Horse racing: See the latest TAB market update for the 2021 Group 1 Doomben Cup.

MONEY TALKS

Race 3: Socialist $5-$3.20, Dovetail Diva $11-$6.50

Race 4: Rocketing By $6-$4, Garoppolo $21-$11

Race 5: Paradee $4-$3.70, Le Gai Soleil $6-$5

Race 6: Varda $8.50-$6

Race 7: Sir Dragonet $6-$4.60, Zaaki $3-$2.50, Humidor $51-$26

Race 8: Garibaldi $4-$3.40, Sirrconi $34-$19

THE QUADDIE

R6: CHIEF DE BEERS (1110M)

This is a terribly difficult race. Based on his Sydney win in fast time and his excellent run in the Magic Millions Snippets after that, I would have King Of Hastings ($6.50) comfortably on top here, but he comes up with a shocking alley. Have to include and just hope he gets some luck. The Odyssey ($11) is going to get a nice run just behind the speed. Is he going as well as he can? No, but he doesn’t need to be at his best here. California Zimbol ($8.50) is another not at her best right now, but lesser grade can help. Sugar Boom ($5) was brave in unsuitable conditions at the Gold Coast. Can take running down here. Varda ($6) (can run on) and The Astrologist ($9.50) (needs luck from draw) are others to include.

Selections: 4 King Of Hastings, 1 The Odyssey, 2 California Zimbol, 6 Sugar Boom, 11 Varda, 14 The Astrologist

Mugatoo has the right set-up in the Doomben Cup. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

R7: DOOMBEN CUP (2000M)

Mugatoo ($4.80) gave Zaaki ($2.50) weight and beat him home in the Doncaster. No doubt the latter should have finished closer there and has improved again since, but feel that race showcases Mugatoo’s ability. Love him freshened up for this with a trial in between and really like the draw, sitting behind what should only be an average speed. Tipping him to sprint quickly when he sees daylight. Zaaki is an obvious inclusion after caning them at the Coast. Sir Dragonet ($4.60) the other winning hope. Probably better over slightly further with more pressure on, but can’t deny his credentials as a dual G1 WFA winner this season and the fact he ran by Mugatoo at the end of the Queen Elizabeth.

Selections: 2 Mugatoo, 5 Zaaki, 1 Sir Dragonet

R8: BRC SPRINT (1350M)

Moment of truth for Garibaldi ($3.40). Hyped up for this carnival and the boom only got bigger after he was unluckily beaten first up. Now faces his toughest test. The map says it should work out perfectly, sitting off a hot speed from a kind draw. I think he’s up to it. So too is Skins ($5) … but he needs a bit of luck on his side. Went past Axe like he was tied to the fence and that horse has won well since. Maybe the speed could stretch this field out and he can get in front of a few in the run. He has an electric finish. Groundswell ($6.50) is going great guns this prep and did G1 place as a three-year-old. Other pressure is some query. Tofane ($9) is well graded on her best form and pace on suits.

Selections: 14 Garibaldi, 17 Skins, 2 Tofane, 8 Groundswell

Good Soize will improve third-up in The Roses. Picture: Grant Peters/Trackside PhotographySource:The Courier-Mail

R9: THE ROSES (2000M)

Chris Waller attacks this in numbers, as he did in the Bracelet, where he had four of the first five across the line. Grace And Harmony ($4.40) was dominant there, eased down at the end. Interestingly, winners of that race have a poor record in this. Still, she still has upside and if she gets luck from the draw, is sure to play a part in this. Behind her, Signora Nera ($7) was outsprinted, but battled on well and Good Soize ($9.50) worked home solidly. I’m tipping her to be the big improver, sitting much closer from a better draw and fitter again third up. New blood includes ATC Oaks placegetter Bargain ($4.40) and NZ Oaks runner-up Charms Star ($21), who joins the Waller stable.

Selections: 6 Good Soize, 3 Grace And Harmony, 7 Charms Star, 10 Signora Nera, 2 Bargain

AWAY FROM HOME

Ellsberg (Rosehill, Race 8, $2.50) disappointed second up at Hawkesbury after a monster fresh win at Randwick, where he beat subsequent Queensland Guineas winner Private Eye. Can bounce back against the older horses here. Further south, Heart Of Puissance (Flemington, Race 4, $2.30) was stiff in the Warrnambool Cup. He looks to have everything made to order to bounce back into the winning list here and show why he’s being spoken about as a candidate for better races.

Originally published asDoomben tips: Soize fits bill for upset

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