Final Four 2019: Updated odds to reach NCAA finals, win national championship

The NCAA basketball tournament has made it to the Final Four. Virginia, Michigan State, Texas Tech and Auburn are the best teams this year to fight for the championship in Minneapolis. This March Madness hasn’t been as mad as a few past ones.

AccuScore’s pre-tournament preview predicted Virginia to win the tournament. The other Final Four teams were ranked fifth, 10th and 13th respectively. 


Why Michigan State, Virginia are safe bets against the spread

Auburn, the team that many experts consider as this year’s “Cinderella Story,” was predicted in the pre-tournament preview as one of two longshots to go deep in the tournament. The Tigers had only over a 7% chance to reach the Final Four before the tournament, but they really earned their place in the finals with their consistent performances – especially after the first round. 

Below are AccuScore’s simulation probabilities of winning the national championship for the four remaining teams.

Final Four odds to reach finals, win national championship

Virginia and Michigan State are clear favorites in the semifinal round. Even though Texas Tech sent No. Gonzaga and No. 2 Michigan home from the West region, Michigan State has been a solid performer throughout the tournament. Their last victory over Duke was predicted to be a tight game (as it was), but in head-to-head matchups Michigan was the favorite in the simulations. 

While this is the first trip to the Final four for the Red Raiders, Michigan State is virtually a regular in the finals. During the tenure of the current coach Tom Izzo, this is its seventh trip to the Final four. The Spartans have won the tournament once in 2000. 

The Virginia Cavaliers are even bigger favorite to reach the final with almost a 70% win probability over the Auburn Tigers. When looking at a historical track record, Virginia has lost only a few games during the last two seasons. Two of those losses were against Duke and the third one was to UMBC a year ago when Virginia wasa  98% favorite to win that game.

SN STAFF PICKS: Virginia vs. Auburn | Michigan State vs. Texas Tech

Chances to win it all 

Virginia still has the best chance to win this tournament. It is the favorite against all other teams. The opposite applies to Auburn. The Tigers are underdogs against all opponents and have around a 13% probability to win the tournament. Virginia’s probability for the championship has increased from 16% to 40%. Auburn started with a 1.5% probability of winning it all and now has almost 10 times greater chance. 

Betting preview 

The betting tip that was given before the tournament to bet against Duke is still very valid. Virginia and Michigan State are the favorites to reach the final and bettors who placed their bets before the tournament on these teams, will make a nice profit if two out of the three remaining games will go as predicted. Right now only Auburn has some value for bettors as its odds are 15-2 to win the championship. 

If you want to simulate the games yourself, check AccuScore’s Bracketcaster.

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